Aoraki/Mt Cook — Avalanche Forecast

A natural avalanche cycle has likely taken place on Wednesday afternoon with heavy precipitation. Cloud is preventing any observations. ForecastHeavy rain, with snow to 1900 metres, easing to a few showers in the afternoon.Wind at 1000 metresNortherly gale 65 km/h, easing to 40 km/h in the morning and dying out in the afternoon.Wind at 2000 metresNortherly gale 80 km/h, easing to 45 km/h before dawn, then turning to westerly 30 km/h in the afternoon.Wind at 3000 metresNortherly gale 65 km/h, easing to westerly 30 km/h in the afternoon.Freezing level2200 metres, lowering to 1700 metres in the afternoon. Rain wetted snow will refreeze at some stage in the near future.

 Up to 50cm of snow fell in the north and west of the region over the weekend, tapering to the south and east. It  bonded well to the old surface. As of Wednesday evening 20cm of new snow is estimated to have fallen above around 2000m on the Divide, with another 10 -20 cm possible through Wednesday night. Rain below this elevation will have wetted the snowpack, and continuing mild temperatures will keep the surface weak. Above around 2000m expect areas of dense windslab to have developed lee to the northerly gales.